Early ecuberance will daunt whom benifit whom?

The elcetion are due in April 2009. That is due in 8 months. Some say it is very near but it is far if you consider the exuberance in the state. May be this is the stage where people will start forming opinions and taking decisions whom to support. But can you keep people excited for so long? Somehow every political party are gearing up too early for elections, reasons being Resignation of TRS Legislatures, Trust Vote in Parliament and of course Mega entry in Politics. These are effected an early ecuberance in all the political parties in the state. Cong did some started appeasement like 2 Rs/- rice, state wide Arogya Sri, 33% quote for BCs (proposal sent to center) etc, CBN started Mee Kosam, Others like TRS, CPM, BSP are trying to save themselves by joined hands with TDP in the name of Maha Kutami, while CPI is waiting for Chiru.

Most of the ruling party is hoping that Chiru will damage the opposition more than them so they are kind of ready to welcome Chiru. Chiru party has been in the news for more than 6 months now. Everybody want to evaluate the fortune of Chiru party very quickly esp Media, Political Paties, Chiru Fans and other movie and politics observers. If you observe the AP Politics genarally 4 to 5% votes shift against ruling party becuse of anti incumbency. Say NTR won 225 seats in 1999 and CBN won 165 in 2004 a shift of 4% votes, still not enough. In 2004 a dip of 5% more resulted big Cong victory gave Cong 230 seats (incuding partners). Assume same thing now may be slightly less may be they will lose same percentage. Then it would survive with say 160 odd. That would be a simple case. Very few Govt in India (except Tamil Nadu) having won 2/3rd majority lost its avantage. Also my guess people of AP aren't feeling too bad about current Govt may be similar to 1999 if you add up the loss due to partners like TRS and Left. But Cong constantly is working keeping the people perception alive rather than settling down the nerves of people. Full term they are critising the oppsition and their ruling, not missing a single chance, thanks to media. CBN almost ignored the opposition while his term, I am finding difficult to remember what he used to say about YSR before 2004. It is kind of dual role for Cong as ruling party and as oppsition for 1999-2004. Time will tell how far it is a smart approach.

A factor in politics is that politicians manage is making their supporters to hate their opponets. That is TDP supporters hates Congress and same is other way. In most of the cases it became like hatred on others is more than likeing of yours. That is Anti Congress, Anti TDP is more that TDP supporters and Congress supporters. These are stretegic voters like they will vote against Cong or TDP to the winning candidate whoever it is. Anybody who can starts a new force in politics with decent point can get the 10% to 15% votes easily as they are both Anti Cong and TDP. But it will not effect the results.

So whenever a third force come in India it effects in following ways. Assuming the 3 rd force is significant, If one party is strong then the oppostion voters will choose the 3rd force in panic of defeating the stronger one, so it will split the oppostion and strong party will be even more stronger. If two parties are equally strong, then anti voters from both the parties will make the 3rd force strong. More importantly whoever comes 3rd will be distant 3rd. They my exit from that place. That can be 3rd force also.

What is happenning with Chiru entry is vote banks are moving esp in Andhra region. This Chiru's own place, traditionally TDP region and currently Congress region. So the balance is almost same for TDP and Cong. The greater Rayalaseema (including Nellore and Ongole) still with rulers as anti TDP voters are sticking Cong and TDP may be weakening here so it makes Cong even more stronger. While in Telangana (excluding Greater Hyd) have maximum anti incumbency for Govt (due to dissidents from its own party, Telangana factor etc) Maha Kutami showing to be stronger (if it materializes) may cause Cong voters to tilt to Chiru more causing Maha Kutami to be even more stronger. The current equation looking like Kosta - Chiru, Greater Rayalaseema - Cong and Telangana - Maha Kutami and Greater Hyd is of couse a mixed bag of all these and MIM.

After Chiru starts campaining things will start to change, public response, his speachs, the agenda and him promises will dig into the strong holds of other parties then we have to see how drama unfolds. Chiru has to do lot of ground work and meet all the state by the time of elections, but the other parties I think lacs the stuff to do. So they will have to watch Chiru and plan the stratagy accordingly. This may leave them clueless for some period of time. The early exuberance of election may daunt the people who are not ready for activity. Political parties have to be on their toes from now on. It will definitely test their character, will power, money power and musile power.